Valued Customers
LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | CIN | 20.3 | 21.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Bucky Irving | MIA | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | HOU | 14.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | CAR | 21.8 | 22.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | CIN | 12.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TEN | 10.2 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| WR | Tetairoa McMillan | SEA | 12.3 | 14.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | CAR | 8.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Chargers D/ST | HOU | 6.3 | 7.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))
Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Championship week vs Kitty's Piggy Skins. 5-round Crystal Society debate produced consensus: MHJ at WR2 (3/4 votes for ceiling in 52.5 game total), McMillan at FLEX (4/4 unanimous - 5 TDs in 5 games). FLOOR agent dissented on Williams but was overruled. KC QB disaster (Mahomes/Minshew ACL) makes Rice unstartable.
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 20.3 | 21.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | RB | 14.9 | 14.0 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | WR | 13.4 | 12.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 21.8 | 22.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 10.2 | 9.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.9 | 14.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.3 | 7.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 10.7 | 9.0 |
| Isiah Pacheco (bench) | RB | BE | 9.8 | 7.0 |
| Quentin Johnston (bench) | WR | BE | 8.3 | 7.0 |
| Rashid Shaheed (bench) | WR | BE | 9.4 | 6.0 |
| Sam Darnold (bench) | QB | BE | 15.9 | 16.0 |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 12.3 | 14.0 |
| Tyjae Spears (bench) | RB | BE | 9.9 | 7.0 |
| Rashee Rice (bench) | WR | IR | 0.0 | --- |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | QB | 20.5 | 18.0 |
| De'Von Achane | RB | RB | 22.3 | 19.0 |
| James Cook III | RB | RB | 17.2 | 18.0 |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WR | 11.9 | 13.0 |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | WR | 13.2 | 14.0 |
| Tyler Warren | TE | TE | 12.1 | 11.0 |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.4 | 12.0 |
| Cairo Santos | K | K | 8.4 | 7.0 |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 8.9 | 9.0 |
| Buccaneers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 5.7 | --- |
| Chase McLaughlin (bench) | K | BE | 8.0 | --- |
| Chimere Dike (bench) | WR | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench) | RB | BE | 10.7 | --- |
| Dallas Goedert (bench) | TE | BE | 10.8 | --- |
| Taysom Hill (bench) | TE | BE | 10.4 | --- |
| Trevor Lawrence (bench) | QB | BE | 19.4 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 54% bust but poorly calibrated. Brissett has been QB1 in every start (20+ pts in all 8 games). CIN is 2nd-worst pass defense. Game total 52.5 (highest). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 21 pts (within 16-24 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 13.9 | 16.0 | 20.6 | +6.7 |
| 14 | LAR | 15.3 | 19.0 | 19.0 | +3.7 |
| 13 | TB | 17.2 | 20.5 | 19.6 | +2.4 |
| 12 | JAX | 16.7 | - | 18.7 | +1.9 |
| 11 | SF | 17.9 | - | 21.9 | +3.9 |
| 10 | SEA | 15.3 | - | 19.4 | +4.2 |
| 9 | DAL | 19.4 | - | 24.8 | +5.4 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 16.6 | - | 19.8 | +3.2 |
| 6 | IND | 13.4 | - | 20.7 | +7.3 |
| 5 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | CAR | 0.0 | - | 0.2 | +0.2 |
| 1 | NO | 0.1 | - | 0.0 | -0.1 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: Backup QB. SEA @ CAR as backup to Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16 pts (if started).
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE (13.8 EV). XGB: 48% bust but model under-predicts RB performance. TB -5.5 favorites = positive game script. MIA Rank 23 vs RB (average). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15 pts (within 8.3-20.3 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | ATL | 15.2 | 14.0 | 8.1 | -7.1 |
| 14 | NO | 16.4 | 16.0 | 16.1 | -0.3 |
| 13 | ARI | 11.8 | 12.0 | 16.1 | +4.3 |
| 12 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | NE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | NO | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | SEA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | PHI | 17.5 | - | 25.5 | +8.0 |
| 3 | NYJ | 17.9 | - | 13.9 | -4.0 |
| 2 | HOU | 15.9 | - | 18.1 | +2.2 |
| 1 | ATL | 17.3 | - | 14.5 | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 55% BUST. Split backfield with Pollard. TEN vs NO. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts (within 0.2-7.7 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 46% MODERATE. Fresh off IR return, LAC primary back. LAC -1.5 vs HOU = close game. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 11.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | -4.2 |
| 14 | PHI | 12.1 | 8.0 | 14.7 | +2.6 |
| 13 | LV | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | PIT | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | TEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 18.6 | - | 13.0 | -5.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 16.7 | - | 27.5 | +10.8 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.2 | - | 24.9 | +12.7 |
| 2 | LV | 15.7 | - | 3.5 | -12.2 |
| 1 | KC | 14.7 | - | 8.1 | -6.6 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: KC decimated at QB (Mahomes ACL, Minshew ACL, Oladokun starting). DEN -13.5 favorites = negative game script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE (17.9 EV), 27% BOOM. SEA WR1 with 104-1637-10 on 143 targets (monster season). CAR Rank 10 vs WR (favorable). SEA -7 favorites. Mode: MODERATE (high-end). Projection: 22 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 20.6 | 22.0 | 18.3 | -2.3 |
| 14 | ATL | 20.9 | 22.0 | 28.1 | +7.2 |
| 13 | MIN | 21.9 | 24.0 | 4.3 | -17.6 |
| 12 | TEN | 21.3 | - | 37.1 | +15.8 |
| 11 | LAR | 23.0 | - | 20.6 | -2.4 |
| 10 | ARI | 22.0 | - | 20.3 | -1.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 24.5 | - | 22.0 | -2.5 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 20.0 | - | 26.3 | +6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 17.9 | - | 30.2 | +12.3 |
| 5 | TB | 15.9 | - | 27.2 | +11.3 |
| 4 | ARI | 16.4 | - | 13.0 | -3.4 |
| 3 | NO | 15.5 | - | 20.6 | +5.1 |
| 2 | PIT | 14.4 | - | 18.3 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 14.7 | - | 19.4 | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST but XGB only 22% bust - XGB weighs recent form (5 TDs in 5 games). OROY favorite (65-924-7). Panthers fighting for playoffs (7-8). SEA Rank 11 vs WR (favorable). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts. DEBATE BACKUP for MHJ if injured.
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | NO | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.5 | -8.7 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | LAR | 13.2 | 13.0 | 11.3 | -1.9 |
| 12 | SF | 16.3 | - | 11.5 | -4.8 |
| 11 | ATL | 13.5 | - | 33.0 | +19.5 |
| 10 | NO | 12.2 | - | 11.0 | -1.2 |
| 9 | GB | 12.9 | - | 8.6 | -4.3 |
| 8 | BUF | 13.4 | - | 16.9 | +3.5 |
| 7 | NYJ | 12.5 | - | 6.3 | -6.2 |
| 6 | DAL | 14.6 | - | 17.9 | +3.3 |
| 5 | MIA | 14.2 | - | 13.3 | -0.9 |
| 4 | NE | 14.2 | - | 10.2 | -4.0 |
| 3 | ATL | 13.2 | - | 7.8 | -5.4 |
| 2 | ARI | 13.5 | - | 16.0 | +2.5 |
| 1 | JAX | 13.9 | - | 11.8 | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE (12.1 EV). XGB: 42% BOOM (highest). INJURY CONCERN: 51% snaps Week 16, heel. But game total 52.5 (elite), CIN Rank 4 vs WR. If healthy, has boom equity. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts (injury-adjusted, within 6-18 range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%
XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | HOU | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | LAR | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | TB | 13.7 | 14.0 | 12.9 | -0.8 |
| 12 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | SF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | SEA | 13.3 | - | 14.3 | +1.0 |
| 9 | DAL | 13.3 | - | 22.6 | +9.3 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | GB | 12.5 | - | 7.8 | -4.7 |
| 6 | IND | 11.9 | - | 5.2 | -6.7 |
| 5 | TEN | 12.8 | - | 13.8 | +1.0 |
| 4 | SEA | 11.3 | - | 18.6 | +7.3 |
| 3 | SF | 12.7 | - | 7.4 | -5.3 |
| 2 | CAR | 14.0 | - | 4.7 | -9.3 |
| 1 | NO | 13.9 | - | 18.1 | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)
Reasoning: VERIFIED OUT: Concussion protocol, non-participant in practice Tuesday. Coach Reid confirmed "no progress." Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rashee-rice-return-week-17-133628505.html. KC QB situation dire (Oladokun starting). Projection: 0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 52% MODERATE (15.3 EV), but faces MIN #1 WR defense. XGB: 43% bust (concerning). Lions fighting for #1 seed. Amon-Ra healthy = target competition. Mode: MODERATE (low-end due to matchup). Projection: 12 pts (within moderate range but matchup-adjusted down).
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 38% BUST. HOU Rank 2 vs WR (brutal matchup). Behind Keenan Allen in targets. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 41% BUST. XGB: 53% bust (highest). Same game as JSN = correlated. WR3 role. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6 pts (within bust range).
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE (9.1 EV). XGB: 24% bust. TEN Rank 16 vs TE (neutral). Full practice, foot managed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | CAR | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| 14 | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | 7.8 | -1.9 |
| 13 | MIA | 8.7 | 11.0 | 8.9 | +0.2 |
| 12 | ATL | 9.3 | - | 10.6 | +1.3 |
| 11 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | CAR | 8.9 | - | 19.2 | +10.2 |
| 9 | LAR | 8.3 | - | 12.1 | +3.8 |
| 8 | TB | 9.6 | - | 10.3 | +0.7 |
| 7 | CHI | 7.5 | - | 12.9 | +5.4 |
| 6 | NE | 7.9 | - | 1.5 | -6.4 |
| 5 | NYG | 7.9 | - | 3.7 | -4.2 |
| 4 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 3 | SEA | 10.6 | - | 11.1 | +0.5 |
| 2 | SF | 9.1 | - | 15.9 | +6.8 |
| 1 | ARI | 7.3 | - | 15.6 | +8.3 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE. NE vs NYJ. Solid floor as NE TE1. NYJ Rank 20 vs TE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%
Notes: VERIFIED OUT: Concussion protocol, non-participant in practice Tuesday. Coach Reid confirmed "no progress." Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rashee-rice-return-week-17-133628505.html. KC QB situation dire (Oladokun starting). Projection: 0 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 17.2 | 11.0 | 12.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 17.1 | 17.0 | 7.4 | -9.7 |
| 13 | DAL | 18.1 | 18.4 | 29.4 | +11.3 |
| 12 | IND | 17.6 | - | 24.1 | +6.5 |
| 11 | DEN | 16.4 | - | 9.8 | -6.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 18.4 | - | 18.6 | +0.2 |
| 8 | WSH | 17.2 | - | 25.5 | +8.2 |
| 7 | LV | 13.7 | - | 23.2 | +9.5 |
| 6 | DET | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | JAX | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 4 | BAL | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | NYG | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | PHI | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 7.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%
Notes: MC: 55% BUST. Split backfield with Pollard. TEN vs NO. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts (within 0.2-7.7 range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | SF | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.6 | -4.4 |
| 14 | CLE | 8.6 | 8.0 | 6.7 | -1.9 |
| 13 | JAX | 9.9 | 8.0 | 8.4 | -1.5 |
| 12 | SEA | 9.6 | - | 6.5 | -3.1 |
| 11 | HOU | 9.0 | - | 8.4 | -0.6 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | LAC | 9.5 | - | 9.2 | -0.3 |
| 8 | IND | 9.5 | - | 17.2 | +7.7 |
| 7 | NE | 7.8 | - | 7.0 | -0.8 |
| 6 | LV | 5.6 | - | 9.0 | +3.4 |
| 5 | ARI | 5.4 | - | 1.4 | -4.0 |
| 4 | HOU | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 3 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2 | LAR | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%
Notes: MC: 52% MODERATE (15.3 EV), but faces MIN #1 WR defense. XGB: 43% bust (concerning). Lions fighting for #1 seed. Amon-Ra healthy = target competition. Mode: MODERATE (low-end due to matchup). Projection: 12 pts (within moderate range but matchup-adjusted down).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAR | 13.9 | 18.0 | 26.4 | +12.5 |
| 14 | DAL | 13.8 | 17.3 | 17.3 | +3.5 |
| 13 | GB | 11.8 | 15.1 | 26.9 | +15.1 |
| 12 | NYG | 12.9 | - | 0.0 | -12.9 |
| 11 | PHI | 12.6 | - | 19.7 | +7.1 |
| 10 | WSH | 12.1 | - | 23.9 | +11.8 |
| 9 | MIN | 11.0 | - | 16.6 | +5.6 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | TB | 13.2 | - | 0.0 | -13.2 |
| 6 | KC | 10.7 | - | 18.6 | +7.9 |
| 5 | CIN | 11.8 | - | 2.0 | -9.8 |
| 4 | CLE | 10.7 | - | 5.7 | -5.0 |
| 3 | BAL | 12.9 | - | 6.3 | -6.6 |
| 2 | CHI | 13.0 | - | 18.8 | +5.8 |
| 1 | GB | 12.9 | - | 6.6 | -6.3 |
Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 7.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%
XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%
Notes: KC decimated at QB (Mahomes ACL, Minshew ACL, Oladokun starting). DEN -13.5 favorites = negative game script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | LAC | 7.2 | - | 2.1 | -5.1 |
| 14 | HOU | 8.3 | - | 3.0 | -5.3 |
| 13 | DAL | 9.7 | - | 5.3 | -4.4 |
| 12 | IND | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | DEN | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 10 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 9 | BUF | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 8 | WSH | 11.4 | - | 5.8 | -5.6 |
| 7 | LV | 11.5 | - | 12.4 | +0.9 |
| 6 | DET | 8.9 | - | 6.1 | -2.8 |
| 5 | JAX | 7.7 | - | 8.6 | +0.9 |
| 4 | BAL | 9.2 | - | 12.8 | +3.6 |
| 3 | NYG | 11.1 | - | 5.8 | -5.3 |
| 2 | PHI | 10.9 | - | 3.9 | -7.0 |
| 1 | LAC | 12.8 | - | 4.8 | -8.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%
Notes: Backup QB. SEA @ CAR as backup to Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16 pts (if started).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 15.2 | - | 11.3 | -3.8 |
| 14 | ATL | 14.3 | - | 22.3 | +8.0 |
| 13 | MIN | 15.2 | - | 3.1 | -12.1 |
| 12 | TEN | 15.2 | - | 17.7 | +2.5 |
| 11 | LAR | 15.0 | - | 4.3 | -10.8 |
| 10 | ARI | 16.6 | - | 4.9 | -11.7 |
| 9 | WSH | 18.2 | - | 27.2 | +8.9 |
| 8 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 7 | HOU | 14.9 | - | 8.6 | -6.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 15.3 | - | 20.0 | +4.7 |
| 5 | TB | 13.2 | - | 27.6 | +14.4 |
| 4 | ARI | 13.0 | - | 16.1 | +3.1 |
| 3 | NO | 14.1 | - | 16.7 | +2.7 |
| 2 | PIT | 12.8 | - | 15.8 | +3.0 |
| 1 | SF | 15.3 | - | 5.4 | -9.9 |
Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%
XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%
Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE. NE vs NYJ. Solid floor as NE TE1. NYJ Rank 20 vs TE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | BUF | 10.3 | 5.0 | 2.8 | -7.5 |
| 14 | BYE | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 13 | NYG | 11.2 | - | 11.3 | +0.1 |
| 12 | CIN | 11.4 | - | 24.5 | +13.1 |
| 11 | NYJ | 10.0 | - | 8.5 | -1.5 |
| 10 | TB | 10.7 | - | 1.9 | -8.8 |
| 9 | ATL | 9.1 | - | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| 8 | CLE | 9.4 | - | 7.7 | -1.7 |
| 7 | TEN | 9.3 | - | 7.3 | -2.0 |
| 6 | NO | 10.3 | - | 5.7 | -4.6 |
| 5 | BUF | 11.1 | - | 6.6 | -4.5 |
| 4 | CAR | 11.2 | - | 11.9 | +0.7 |
| 3 | PIT | 9.1 | - | 29.0 | +19.9 |
| 2 | MIA | 9.7 | - | 1.9 | -7.8 |
| 1 | LV | 8.8 | - | 10.6 | +1.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 7.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%
Notes: MC: 38% BUST. HOU Rank 2 vs WR (brutal matchup). Behind Keenan Allen in targets. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | KC | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 14 | PHI | 8.7 | - | 2.8 | -5.9 |
| 13 | LV | 10.0 | - | 11.3 | +1.3 |
| 12 | BYE | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11 | JAX | 12.6 | - | 0.0 | -12.6 |
| 10 | PIT | 11.7 | - | 9.2 | -2.5 |
| 9 | TEN | 12.3 | - | 15.3 | +3.0 |
| 8 | MIN | 13.5 | - | 0.0 | -13.5 |
| 7 | IND | 14.9 | - | 11.0 | -3.9 |
| 6 | MIA | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 5 | WSH | 17.5 | - | 6.9 | -10.6 |
| 4 | NYG | 13.8 | - | 23.8 | +10.0 |
| 3 | DEN | 12.7 | - | 14.9 | +2.2 |
| 2 | LV | 11.5 | - | 15.9 | +4.4 |
| 1 | KC | 6.4 | - | 24.9 | +18.5 |
Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%
XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%
Notes: MC: 41% BUST. XGB: 53% bust (highest). Same game as JSN = correlated. WR3 role. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6 pts (within bust range).
| Week | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Actual | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | IND | 8.7 | - | 12.1 | +3.4 |
| 14 | ATL | 8.0 | - | 16.7 | +8.7 |
| 13 | MIN | 7.9 | - | 2.6 | -5.3 |
| 12 | TEN | 7.8 | - | 0.5 | -7.3 |
| 11 | LAR | 9.6 | - | 4.9 | -4.7 |
| 10 | ARI | 10.4 | - | 3.3 | -7.1 |
| 9 | WSH | 10.8 | - | 11.8 | +1.0 |
| 8 | BYE | 12.2 | - | 14.5 | +2.3 |
| 7 | HOU | 11.3 | - | 8.0 | -3.3 |
| 6 | JAX | 10.0 | - | 6.8 | -3.2 |
| 5 | TB | 9.3 | - | 21.4 | +12.1 |
| 4 | ARI | 9.7 | - | 9.2 | -0.5 |
| 3 | NO | 10.1 | - | 8.2 | -1.9 |
| 2 | PIT | 11.3 | - | 15.2 | +3.9 |
| 1 | SF | 10.6 | - | 9.3 | -1.3 |
James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability
Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability
Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability
Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | 17.2 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 57% | 31% | 12% | HIGH |
| Dak Prescott | QB | DAL | 20.5 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 51% | 34% | 15% | HIGH |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | MIA | 13.2 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 49% | 36% | 15% | HIGH |
| Tyler Warren | TE | IND | 12.1 | 11.0 | MODERATE | 41% | 40% | 19% | HIGH |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | DEN | 8.9 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 29% | 45% | 26% | MEDIUM |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | WSH | 11.9 | 13.0 | MODERATE | 27% | 52% | 22% | MEDIUM |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MIA | 22.3 | 19.0 | MODERATE | 13% | 64% | 23% | LOW |
| Cairo Santos | K | CHI | 8.4 | 7.0 | BUST | 13% | 28% | 59% | LOW |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | 12.4 | 12.0 | BUST | 9% | 48% | 43% | LOW |
James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)
Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)
Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)
Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)
Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)
Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)
De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)
Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)
DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)
Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 12.2 | 47% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 0.0 | 34% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Jordan Love | QB | 16.6 | 27% | 21% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.0 | 27% | 24% | 0.0% | |
| Zach Ertz | TE | 10.1 | 24% | 27% | 0.0% | |
| Bears D/ST | D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | 0.0% | |
| Matt Prater | K | 8.0 | 19% | 54% | 0.0% | |
| Cooper Kupp | WR | 9.8 | 18% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Devin Neal | RB | 9.6 | 18% | 45% | 0.0% | |
| Giants D/ST | D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Harrison Mevis | K | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.7 | 15% | 48% | 0.0% | |
| 49ers D/ST | D/ST | 8.1 | 14% | 51% | 0.0% | |
| Jayden Reed | WR | 11.7 | 13% | 52% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.6 | 12% | 57% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 34% | 30% | |
| Jordan Love | 16.6 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21% | 27% | 21% | |
| Kyler Murray | 16.8 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26% | 11% | 54% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 12.2 | BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14% | 47% | 20% | |
| Devin Neal | 9.6 | BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19% | 18% | 45% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.6 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24% | 12% | 57% | |
| Quinshon Judkins | 11.8 | BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32% | 9% | 64% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.5 | BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12% | 8% | 61% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Kupp | 9.8 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12% | 18% | 48% | |
| Garrett Wilson | 14.7 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 15% | 48% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.7 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 13% | 52% | |
| Darnell Mooney | 8.1 | BUST:46%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:20% | 10% | 60% | |
| Keenan Allen | 11.7 | BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11% | 9% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 8.0 | BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20% | 27% | 24% | |
| Zach Ertz | 10.1 | BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34% | 24% | 27% | |
| Oronde Gadsden | 13.7 | BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Prater | 8.0 | 19% | 54% | |
| Harrison Mevis | 9.0 | 16% | 48% | |
| Evan McPherson | 9.4 | 9% | 60% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bears D/ST | 8.4 | 20% | 30% | |
| Giants D/ST | 6.7 | 18% | 46% | |
| 49ers D/ST | 8.1 | 14% | 51% |
Win Probability
Floor: -38.6 pts | Median: +2.2 pts | Ceiling: +40.8 pts
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 21.0 | 4.4-27.9 | ↑15+: 66% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | HIGH | 15.0 | 5.0-24.0 | ↑15+: 40% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.7-24.3 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | MED | 22.0 | 6.3-30.0 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.8-21.5 | ↑15+: 31% | ↓5-: 17% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.2-26.1 | ↑15+: 51% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.9-16.6 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 7.0 | 0.9-18.0 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 5.4-19.0 | ↑15+: 26% | ↓5-: 8% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Darnold | QB | HIGH | 16.0 | 4.0-27.5 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 7.0 | 2.6-17.9 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | HIGH | 7.0 | 2.2-15.4 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 42% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 4.9-25.0 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | HIGH | 7.0 | 2.9-22.9 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | HIGH | 6.0 | 1.7-20.1 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 27% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 9.0 | 3.1-20.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 30% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 0.0 | 6.5-27.6 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 3% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | MED | 18.0 | 7.5-29.9 | ↑15+: 62% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| De'Von Achane | RB | MED | 19.0 | 10.8-31.4 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| James Cook III | RB | MED | 18.0 | 6.3-27.4 | ↑15+: 52% | ↓5-: 4% | |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | HIGH | 12.0 | 4.5-24.3 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Jaylen Waddle | WR | HIGH | 14.0 | 3.1-22.3 | ↑15+: 36% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Deebo Samuel | WR | HIGH | 13.0 | 3.6-23.0 | ↑15+: 33% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Tyler Warren | TE | HIGH | 11.0 | 3.1-18.1 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 22% | |
| Broncos D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 9.0 | 0.7-18.1 | ↑15+: 18% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Cairo Santos | K | HIGH | 7.0 | 3.8-16.1 | ↑15+: 14% | ↓5-: 21% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | HIGH | 18.8 | 8.3-32.2 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 2% | |
| Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | HIGH | 7.6 | 1.7-14.2 | ↑15+: 8% | ↓5-: 36% | |
| Chimere Dike | WR | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.0-20.8 | ↑15+: 27% | ↓5-: 32% | |
| Dallas Goedert | TE | HIGH | 11.9 | 3.8-23.3 | ↑15+: 28% | ↓5-: 20% | |
| Taysom Hill | TE | HIGH | 5.4 | 0.7-13.6 | ↑15+: 7% | ↓5-: 73% | |
| Buccaneers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 10.1 | 1.3-20.8 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 34% | |
| Chase McLaughlin | K | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.8-16.7 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 25% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 17% @ 24.3 | 59% @ 14.3 | 25% @ 5.9 | 13.9 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 27% @ 28.7 | 44% @ 18.4 | 29% @ 7.6 | 18.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 27% @ 20.1 | 43% @ 12.0 | 31% @ 5.2 | 12.1 |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 25% @ 23.1 | 43% @ 12.1 | 32% @ 5.2 | 12.6 |
| Jason Myers | K | 25% @ 18.3 | 44% @ 11.8 | 31% @ 6.5 | 11.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 30% @ 14.9 | 45% @ 8.8 | 25% @ 3.8 | 9.4 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 29% @ 24.4 | 44% @ 15.6 | 28% @ 5.4 | 15.3 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 74% @ 21.4 | 2% @ 14.7 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 36% @ 15.0 | 42% @ 8.4 | 22% @ 2.8 | 9.5 |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers D/ST | D/ST | 6.3 | 7.0 | MODERATE | 55.0% | 29.8% | 15.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 12.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 42.3% | 35.3% | 22.4% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 13.7 | 0.0 | OUT | 24.9% | 45.3% | 29.8% |
| Jason Myers | K | 8.4 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 23.2% | 55.1% | 21.6% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 10.2 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 18.8% | 25.1% | 56.0% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 9.9 | 7.0 | BUST | 17.6% | 44.8% | 37.6% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | 12.3 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 16.9% | 61.6% | 21.5% |
| Quentin Johnston | WR | 8.3 | 7.0 | BUST | 15.2% | 45.7% | 39.1% |
| Rashid Shaheed | WR | 9.4 | 6.0 | BUST | 13.8% | 33.2% | 53.0% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 20.3 | 21.0 | MODERATE | 13.5% | 50.0% | 36.4% |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 15.9 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 13.3% | 42.9% | 43.8% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 14.7 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 12.9% | 38.9% | 48.2% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 13.4 | 12.0 | MODERATE | 12.6% | 44.9% | 42.6% |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.9 | 7.0 | BUST | 11.9% | 28.2% | 59.9% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 21.8 | 22.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 66.0% | 22.6% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 14.9 | 14.0 | MODERATE | 9.0% | 33.3% | 57.7% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | 10.7 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 8.0% | 30.5% | 61.6% |
Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.
| Rank | Team | Record | PF (Total) | PA (Total) | +/- | This Week | Streak | Playoff % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 10-5 | 1861.3 | 1676.5 | +184.8 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 100.0% |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 10-5 | 1771.1 | 1765.4 | +5.7 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 100.0% |
| 3 | Valued Customers ← | 9-6 | 1822.8 | 1558.6 | +264.2 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W5 | 100.0% |
| 4 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8-7 | 1759.9 | 1725.0 | +35.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 100.0% |
| 5 | Wookie of the Year | 8-7 | 1705.9 | 1731.9 | -26.0 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L1 | 0.0% |
| 6 | Meat Pistols | 8-7 | 1515.0 | 1664.9 | -149.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 7 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7-8 | 1730.5 | 1674.7 | +55.9 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L2 | 0.0% |
| 8 | Moms rules | 7-8 | 1664.9 | 1778.5 | -113.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W1 | 0.0% |
| 9 | Smooth Roosters | 7-8 | 1664.4 | 1646.9 | +17.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W3 | 0.0% |
| 10 | The Warsaw Pact | 6-9 | 1653.5 | 1752.0 | -98.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | W2 | 0.0% |
| 11 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 6-9 | 1584.0 | 1689.6 | -105.6 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L5 | 0.0% |
| 12 | Auto DraftKings | 4-11 | 1697.9 | 1767.4 | -69.5 | 0.0 vs 0.0 | L4 | 0.0% |
| Away Team | Score | Score | Home Team | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Valued Customers |
| 4th and pinches | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Ryan's Rowdy Team |
| Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Moms rules |
| Meat Pistols | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | The Warsaw Pact |
| Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Auto DraftKings |
| Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | @ | 0.0 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits |
Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.
| Game | Total | Spread | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ CIN | 52.5 | CIN -7 | HIGHEST TOTAL - shootout expected, MHJ ceiling play |
| SEA @ CAR | 42.5 | SEA -7 | JSN + Myers safe plays, Panthers fighting for division |
| DET vs MIN | 43.5 | DET -7.5 | Williams tough matchup but competitive game |
| TB vs MIA | 45.5 | TB -5.5 | Irving positive game script |
| KC @ DEN | 36.5 | DEN -13.5 | AVOID KC - blowout, backup QB, negative script |
Agents voted 3-1 for Williams (WR2) + MHJ (FLEX) over McMillan. Key factors: - Williams: Highest MC EV (15.3), Lions playoff push - MHJ: Highest XGB boom (42%), elite game environment (52.5) - McMillan: Strong backup (5 TDs in 5 games) if MHJ limited
No waiver recommendations this week.
No major injury concerns.
Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)
Live data from completed games
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 21.8 | 22.0 | 0.0 | -22.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 20.3 | 21.0 | 0.0 | -21.0 |
| Opponent | RB | De'Von Achane | 22.3 | 19.0 | 0.0 | -19.0 |
| Opponent | RB | James Cook III | 17.2 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Dak Prescott | 20.5 | 18.0 | 0.0 | -18.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Sam Darnold | 15.9 | 16.0 | 0.0 | -16.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 14.7 | 15.0 | 0.0 | -15.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 12.3 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 12.9 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 14.9 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Jaylen Waddle | 13.2 | 14.0 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Deebo Samuel | 11.9 | 13.0 | 0.0 | -13.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 13.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | WR | DeVonta Smith | 12.4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | -12.0 |
| Opponent | TE | Tyler Warren | 12.1 | 11.0 | 0.0 | -11.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.4 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 10.2 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Hunter Henry | 10.7 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Broncos D/ST | 8.9 | 9.0 | 0.0 | -9.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 9.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 6.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 8.9 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Quentin Johnston | 8.3 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Opponent | K | Cairo Santos | 8.4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | -7.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashid Shaheed | 9.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | -6.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 13.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)
| Category | Pos | Player | ESPN | LLM | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free Agent | K | Ka'imi Fairbairn | 0.0 | - | 16.0 | +16.0 |
| Free Agent | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 0.0 | - | 13.5 | +13.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Tyjae Spears | 8.7 | 10.0 | 21.5 | +11.5 |
| Our Team | QB | Jordan Love | 17.4 | 15.0 | 3.8 | -11.2 |
| Free Agent | K | Eddy Pineiro | 0.0 | - | 11.0 | +11.0 |
| Our Team | QB | Jacoby Brissett | 18.8 | 21.0 | 10.6 | -10.4 |
| Opponent | TE | Trey McBride | 16.8 | - | 6.7 | -10.1 |
| Our Team | WR | Jameson Williams | 15.9 | 22.0 | 12.0 | -10.0 |
| Our Team | WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 14.2 | 12.0 | 2.4 | -9.6 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 4.2 | 12.0 | 4.0 | -8.0 |
| Our Team | TE | Juwan Johnson | 9.1 | 9.0 | 16.9 | +7.9 |
| Our Team | RB | Isiah Pacheco | 9.1 | 6.0 | 13.5 | +7.5 |
| Our Team | RB | Bucky Irving | 15.2 | 14.0 | 7.1 | -6.9 |
| Opponent | RB | Rico Dowdle | 15.2 | - | 8.3 | -6.9 |
| Our Team | WR | Tetairoa McMillan | 13.1 | 13.0 | 19.3 | +6.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Jayden Reed | 11.2 | 13.0 | 7.1 | -5.9 |
| Opponent | WR | DK Metcalf | 13.5 | - | 8.2 | -5.3 |
| Our Team | WR | Rashee Rice | 17.8 | 5.0 | 0.0 | -5.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Patriots D/ST | 0.0 | - | 5.0 | +5.0 |
| Opponent | RB | Michael Carter | 11.0 | - | 6.5 | -4.5 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chargers D/ST | 0.0 | - | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Opponent | QB | Baker Mayfield | 16.6 | - | 12.7 | -3.9 |
| Opponent | D/ST | Jaguars D/ST | 5.6 | - | 2.0 | -3.6 |
| Our Team | RB | Omarion Hampton | 13.2 | 13.0 | 16.5 | +3.5 |
| Opponent | K | Harrison Butker | 8.0 | - | 11.0 | +3.0 |
| Our Team | RB | Devin Singletary | 7.5 | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 |
| Opponent | RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 23.8 | - | 22.8 | -1.0 |
| Free Agent | D/ST | Chiefs D/ST | 0.0 | - | 1.0 | +1.0 |
| Opponent | WR | Michael Wilson | 13.4 | - | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Our Team | WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 19.9 | 23.6 | 23.6 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | K | Jason Myers | 8.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | +0.0 |
| Our Team | D/ST | Rams D/ST | 5.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | +0.0 |
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.