45%

Win Probability

-2.0

Projected Margin

CI: [-22.0 to +18.0]

Boom Potential

Chargers D/ST, Marvin Harrison Jr.

Bust Risk

Juwan Johnson (56%), Omarion Hampton (58%), Bucky Irving (48%)

Start/Sit Decisions

WR2: Start Marvin Harrison Jr. over ['Jameson Williams', 'Tetairoa McMillan'] 5-ROUND DEBATE (3/4): 42% XGB boom in 52.5 game total. Coach confirmed 'ready for more' reps. Despite heel injury (51% snaps W16), ceiling play needed when down 4 pts.

FLEX: Start Tetairoa McMillan over ['Jameson Williams', 'Hunter Henry'] UNANIMOUS (4/4): 5 TDs in last 5 games, OROY favorite (65-924-7). XGB bust only 22%. Panthers fighting for NFC South (7-8).

Recommended Starting Lineup

LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs

Slot	Player	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Confidence
QB	Jacoby Brissett	CIN	20.3	21.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Bucky Irving	MIA	14.7	15.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
RB	Omarion Hampton	HOU	14.9	14.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	CAR	21.8	22.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	CIN	12.9	14.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
TE	Juwan Johnson	TEN	10.2	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
WR	Tetairoa McMillan	SEA	12.3	14.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
K	Jason Myers	CAR	8.4	9.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM
D/ST	Chargers D/ST	HOU	6.3	7.0	MODERATE	MEDIUM

Waiver Wire

Add/Drop Recommendations

ADD J.K. Dobbins (RB) 47% boom / 20% bust

ADD Jayden Daniels (QB) 34% boom / 30% bust

ADD Jordan Love (QB) 27% boom / 21% bust

Protected (Playoffs)

Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.

Executive Summary

Championship week vs Kitty's Piggy Skins. 5-round Crystal Society debate produced consensus: MHJ at WR2 (3/4 votes for ceiling in 52.5 game total), McMillan at FLEX (4/4 unanimous - 5 TDs in 5 games). FLOOR agent dissented on Williams but was overruled. KC QB disaster (Mahomes/Minshew ACL) makes Rice unstartable.

Key Insights

DK Metcalf traded to PIT - JSN is Seattle's clear WR1 (104-1637-10 on 143 targets)
MHJ heel injury: 51% snaps Week 16, but 52.5 game total and 42% XGB boom
Jameson Williams faces #1 WR defense (MIN) but Lions fighting for #1 seed
McMillan: 5 TDs in last 5 games, OROY favorite, backup FLEX option
KC QB disaster: Mahomes ACL, Minshew ACL, Oladokun starting - avoid all KC players
Brissett vs CIN (2nd-worst pass D) is elite matchup, 52.5 total
EXPERT CONFLICT: NFL.com ranks Williams WR7, MHJ WR21 - debate prioritized matchup over production

Matchup Status (Week 17)

0.0 - 0.0 vs Kitty's Piggy Skins

Games Pending (17)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Jacoby Brissett	QB	QB	20.3	21.0
Bucky Irving	RB	RB	14.7	15.0
Omarion Hampton	RB	RB	14.9	14.0
Jameson Williams	WR	WR	13.4	12.0
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	WR	21.8	22.0
Juwan Johnson	TE	TE	10.2	9.0
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.9	14.0
Jason Myers	K	K	8.4	9.0
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	6.3	7.0
Hunter Henry (bench)	TE	BE	10.7	9.0
Isiah Pacheco (bench)	RB	BE	9.8	7.0
Quentin Johnston (bench)	WR	BE	8.3	7.0
Rashid Shaheed (bench)	WR	BE	9.4	6.0
Sam Darnold (bench)	QB	BE	15.9	16.0
Tetairoa McMillan (bench)	WR	BE	12.3	14.0
Tyjae Spears (bench)	RB	BE	9.9	7.0
Rashee Rice (bench)	WR	IR	0.0	---

0.0 Actual

125.0 LLM Total

122.9 ESPN Total

Opponent: Kitty's Piggy Skins

Opponent Games Pending (16)

Player	Pos	Slot	ESPN	LLM
Dak Prescott	QB	QB	20.5	18.0
De'Von Achane	RB	RB	22.3	19.0
James Cook III	RB	RB	17.2	18.0
Deebo Samuel	WR	WR	11.9	13.0
Jaylen Waddle	WR	WR	13.2	14.0
Tyler Warren	TE	TE	12.1	11.0
DeVonta Smith	WR	RB/WR/TE	12.4	12.0
Cairo Santos	K	K	8.4	7.0
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	D/ST	8.9	9.0
Buccaneers D/ST (bench)	D/ST	BE	5.7	---
Chase McLaughlin (bench)	K	BE	8.0	---
Chimere Dike (bench)	WR	BE	10.7	---
Chris Rodriguez Jr. (bench)	RB	BE	10.7	---
Dallas Goedert (bench)	TE	BE	10.8	---
Taysom Hill (bench)	TE	BE	10.4	---
Trevor Lawrence (bench)	QB	BE	19.4	---

0.0 Opp Actual

127.0 Opp LLM Total

127.0 Opp ESPN Total

Projected Margin: -2.0 pts

Jacoby Brissett (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 20.3 | LLM 21.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 57% MODERATE (historical). XGB: 54% bust but poorly calibrated. Brissett has been QB1 in every start (20+ pts in all 8 games). CIN is 2nd-worst pass defense. Game total 52.5 (highest). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 21 pts (within 16-24 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 2% | BOOM: 74%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	13.9	16.0	20.6	+6.7
14	LAR	15.3	19.0	19.0	+3.7
13	TB	17.2	20.5	19.6	+2.4
12	JAX	16.7	-	18.7	+1.9
11	SF	17.9	-	21.9	+3.9
10	SEA	15.3	-	19.4	+4.2
9	DAL	19.4	-	24.8	+5.4
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	16.6	-	19.8	+3.2
6	IND	13.4	-	20.7	+7.3
5	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	CAR	0.0	-	0.2	+0.2
1	NO	0.1	-	0.0	-0.1

6-game streak of beating projections
Averaging 12.3 pts vs 9.7 projected (+27%)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.85)
Season high: 24.8 pts in Week 9

Sam Darnold (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: Backup QB. SEA @ CAR as backup to Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16 pts (if started).

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Bucky Irving (TB vs MIA)

Projections: ESPN 14.7 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 59% MODERATE (13.8 EV). XGB: 48% bust but model under-predicts RB performance. TB -5.5 favorites = positive game script. MIA Rank 23 vs RB (average). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15 pts (within 8.3-20.3 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 58% | BOOM: 17%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 48% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	ATL	15.2	14.0	8.1	-7.1
14	NO	16.4	16.0	16.1	-0.3
13	ARI	11.8	12.0	16.1	+4.3
12	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	NE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	NO	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	SEA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	PHI	17.5	-	25.5	+8.0
3	NYJ	17.9	-	13.9	-4.0
2	HOU	15.9	-	18.1	+2.2
1	ATL	17.3	-	14.5	-2.8

Trending up: 13.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.20)
Season high: 25.5 pts in Week 4

Tyjae Spears (TEN vs NO)

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 55% BUST. Split backfield with Pollard. TEN vs NO. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts (within 0.2-7.7 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Omarion Hampton (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 14.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 46% MODERATE. Fresh off IR return, LAC primary back. LAC -1.5 vs HOU = close game. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 58% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	11.7	10.0	7.5	-4.2
14	PHI	12.1	8.0	14.7	+2.6
13	LV	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	PIT	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	TEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	MIN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	18.6	-	13.0	-5.6
4	NYG	16.7	-	27.5	+10.8
3	DEN	12.2	-	24.9	+12.7
2	LV	15.7	-	3.5	-12.2
1	KC	14.7	-	8.1	-6.6

Trending up: 7.4 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.42)
Season high: 27.5 pts in Week 4

Isiah Pacheco (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: KC decimated at QB (Mahomes ACL, Minshew ACL, Oladokun starting). DEN -13.5 favorites = negative game script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 21.8 | LLM 22.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 44% MODERATE (17.9 EV), 27% BOOM. SEA WR1 with 104-1637-10 on 143 targets (monster season). CAR Rank 10 vs WR (favorable). SEA -7 favorites. Mode: MODERATE (high-end). Projection: 22 pts (within 12.4-24.4 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	20.6	22.0	18.3	-2.3
14	ATL	20.9	22.0	28.1	+7.2
13	MIN	21.9	24.0	4.3	-17.6
12	TEN	21.3	-	37.1	+15.8
11	LAR	23.0	-	20.6	-2.4
10	ARI	22.0	-	20.3	-1.7
9	WSH	24.5	-	22.0	-2.5
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	20.0	-	26.3	+6.3
6	JAX	17.9	-	30.2	+12.3
5	TB	15.9	-	27.2	+11.3
4	ARI	16.4	-	13.0	-3.4
3	NO	15.5	-	20.6	+5.1
2	PIT	14.4	-	18.3	+3.9
1	SF	14.7	-	19.4	+4.7

Averaging 20.4 pts vs 17.9 projected (+14%)
Trending down: 16.9 avg (last 3) vs 26.0 (prior 3)
Season high: 37.1 pts in Week 12

Tetairoa McMillan (CAR vs SEA)

Projections: ESPN 12.3 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST but XGB only 22% bust - XGB weighs recent form (5 TDs in 5 games). OROY favorite (65-924-7). Panthers fighting for playoffs (7-8). SEA Rank 11 vs WR (favorable). Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts. DEBATE BACKUP for MHJ if injured.

MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	NO	13.2	11.0	4.5	-8.7
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	LAR	13.2	13.0	11.3	-1.9
12	SF	16.3	-	11.5	-4.8
11	ATL	13.5	-	33.0	+19.5
10	NO	12.2	-	11.0	-1.2
9	GB	12.9	-	8.6	-4.3
8	BUF	13.4	-	16.9	+3.5
7	NYJ	12.5	-	6.3	-6.2
6	DAL	14.6	-	17.9	+3.3
5	MIA	14.2	-	13.3	-0.9
4	NE	14.2	-	10.2	-4.0
3	ATL	13.2	-	7.8	-5.4
2	ARI	13.5	-	16.0	+2.5
1	JAX	13.9	-	11.8	-2.1

Trending down: 5.3 avg (last 3) vs 18.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.62)
Season high: 33.0 pts in Week 11

Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARI vs CIN)

Projections: ESPN 12.9 | LLM 14.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE (12.1 EV). XGB: 42% BOOM (highest). INJURY CONCERN: 51% snaps Week 16, heel. But game total 52.5 (elite), CIN Rank 4 vs WR. If healthy, has boom equity. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 14 pts (injury-adjusted, within 6-18 range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 27%

XGB (This Week): Boom 42% | Bust 22% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	HOU	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
14	LAR	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	TB	13.7	14.0	12.9	-0.8
12	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	SF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	SEA	13.3	-	14.3	+1.0
9	DAL	13.3	-	22.6	+9.3
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	GB	12.5	-	7.8	-4.7
6	IND	11.9	-	5.2	-6.7
5	TEN	12.8	-	13.8	+1.0
4	SEA	11.3	-	18.6	+7.3
3	SF	12.7	-	7.4	-5.3
2	CAR	14.0	-	4.7	-9.3
1	NO	13.9	-	18.1	+4.2

Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.94)
Season high: 22.6 pts in Week 9

Rashee Rice (KC vs DEN)

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A (OUT)

Reasoning: VERIFIED OUT: Concussion protocol, non-participant in practice Tuesday. Coach Reid confirmed "no progress." Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rashee-rice-return-week-17-133628505.html. KC QB situation dire (Oladokun starting). Projection: 0 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Jameson Williams (DET vs MIN)

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 52% MODERATE (15.3 EV), but faces MIN #1 WR defense. XGB: 43% bust (concerning). Lions fighting for #1 seed. Amon-Ra healthy = target competition. Mode: MODERATE (low-end due to matchup). Projection: 12 pts (within moderate range but matchup-adjusted down).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Quentin Johnston (LAC vs HOU)

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 7.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 38% BUST. HOU Rank 2 vs WR (brutal matchup). Behind Keenan Allen in targets. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (SEA vs CAR)

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)

Reasoning: MC: 41% BUST. XGB: 53% bust (highest). Same game as JSN = correlated. WR3 role. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6 pts (within bust range).

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

Juwan Johnson (NO vs TEN)

Projections: ESPN 10.2 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 45% MODERATE (9.1 EV). XGB: 24% bust. TEN Rank 16 vs TE (neutral). Full practice, foot managed. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 19% | Bust 56% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	CAR	9.7	10.0	7.0	-2.7
14	TB	9.7	10.0	7.8	-1.9
13	MIA	8.7	11.0	8.9	+0.2
12	ATL	9.3	-	10.6	+1.3
11	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	CAR	8.9	-	19.2	+10.2
9	LAR	8.3	-	12.1	+3.8
8	TB	9.6	-	10.3	+0.7
7	CHI	7.5	-	12.9	+5.4
6	NE	7.9	-	1.5	-6.4
5	NYG	7.9	-	3.7	-4.2
4	BUF	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
3	SEA	10.6	-	11.1	+0.5
2	SF	9.1	-	15.9	+6.8
1	ARI	7.3	-	15.6	+8.3

Averaging 9.5 pts vs 8.4 projected (+13%)
Trending down: 7.9 avg (last 3) vs 9.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.57)
Season high: 19.2 pts in Week 10

Hunter Henry (NE vs NYJ)

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)

Reasoning: MC: 43% MODERATE. NE vs NYJ. Solid floor as NE TE1. NYJ Rank 20 vs TE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62% (MEDIUM)

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Rashee Rice (WR) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 13.7 | LLM N/A

MC (Historical): BUST: 37% | MODERATE: 24% | BOOM: 39%

XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 30%

Notes: VERIFIED OUT: Concussion protocol, non-participant in practice Tuesday. Coach Reid confirmed "no progress." Source: https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/rashee-rice-return-week-17-133628505.html. KC QB situation dire (Oladokun starting). Projection: 0 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	17.2	11.0	12.1	-5.1
14	HOU	17.1	17.0	7.4	-9.7
13	DAL	18.1	18.4	29.4	+11.3
12	IND	17.6	-	24.1	+6.5
11	DEN	16.4	-	9.8	-6.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	18.4	-	18.6	+0.2
8	WSH	17.2	-	25.5	+8.2
7	LV	13.7	-	23.2	+9.5
6	DET	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	JAX	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
4	BAL	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	NYG	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	PHI	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	LAC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

Averaging 10.0 pts vs 9.1 projected (+10%)
Trending up: 16.3 avg (last 3) vs 11.3 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 1.13)
Season high: 29.4 pts in Week 13

Tyjae Spears (RB) - TEN vs NO

Projections: ESPN 9.9 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 14%

XGB (This Week): Boom 18% | Bust 38%

Notes: MC: 55% BUST. Split backfield with Pollard. TEN vs NO. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts (within 0.2-7.7 range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	SF	10.0	6.0	5.6	-4.4
14	CLE	8.6	8.0	6.7	-1.9
13	JAX	9.9	8.0	8.4	-1.5
12	SEA	9.6	-	6.5	-3.1
11	HOU	9.0	-	8.4	-0.6
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	LAC	9.5	-	9.2	-0.3
8	IND	9.5	-	17.2	+7.7
7	NE	7.8	-	7.0	-0.8
6	LV	5.6	-	9.0	+3.4
5	ARI	5.4	-	1.4	-4.0
4	HOU	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
3	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
2	LAR	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
1	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0

5-game streak of missing projections
Trending up: 6.9 avg (last 3) vs 5.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.95)
Season high: 17.2 pts in Week 8

Jameson Williams (WR) - DET vs MIN

Projections: ESPN 13.4 | LLM 12.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 44% | BOOM: 29%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 43%

Notes: MC: 52% MODERATE (15.3 EV), but faces MIN #1 WR defense. XGB: 43% bust (concerning). Lions fighting for #1 seed. Amon-Ra healthy = target competition. Mode: MODERATE (low-end due to matchup). Projection: 12 pts (within moderate range but matchup-adjusted down).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAR	13.9	18.0	26.4	+12.5
14	DAL	13.8	17.3	17.3	+3.5
13	GB	11.8	15.1	26.9	+15.1
12	NYG	12.9	-	0.0	-12.9
11	PHI	12.6	-	19.7	+7.1
10	WSH	12.1	-	23.9	+11.8
9	MIN	11.0	-	16.6	+5.6
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	TB	13.2	-	0.0	-13.2
6	KC	10.7	-	18.6	+7.9
5	CIN	11.8	-	2.0	-9.8
4	CLE	10.7	-	5.7	-5.0
3	BAL	12.9	-	6.3	-6.6
2	CHI	13.0	-	18.8	+5.8
1	GB	12.9	-	6.6	-6.3

3-game streak of beating projections
Trending up: 23.5 avg (last 3) vs 14.5 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.79)
Season high: 26.9 pts in Week 13

Isiah Pacheco (RB) - KC vs DEN

Projections: ESPN 8.9 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 70% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 3%

XGB (This Week): Boom 12% | Bust 60%

Notes: KC decimated at QB (Mahomes ACL, Minshew ACL, Oladokun starting). DEN -13.5 favorites = negative game script. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	LAC	7.2	-	2.1	-5.1
14	HOU	8.3	-	3.0	-5.3
13	DAL	9.7	-	5.3	-4.4
12	IND	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	DEN	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
10	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
9	BUF	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
8	WSH	11.4	-	5.8	-5.6
7	LV	11.5	-	12.4	+0.9
6	DET	8.9	-	6.1	-2.8
5	JAX	7.7	-	8.6	+0.9
4	BAL	9.2	-	12.8	+3.6
3	NYG	11.1	-	5.8	-5.3
2	PHI	10.9	-	3.9	-7.0
1	LAC	12.8	-	4.8	-8.0

3-game streak of missing projections
Averaging 4.7 pts vs 7.3 projected (-35%)
Trending up: 3.5 avg (last 3) vs 0.0 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.89)
Season high: 12.8 pts in Week 4

Sam Darnold (QB) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 15.9 | LLM 16.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 38% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 25%

XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 44%

Notes: Backup QB. SEA @ CAR as backup to Brissett. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16 pts (if started).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	15.2	-	11.3	-3.8
14	ATL	14.3	-	22.3	+8.0
13	MIN	15.2	-	3.1	-12.1
12	TEN	15.2	-	17.7	+2.5
11	LAR	15.0	-	4.3	-10.8
10	ARI	16.6	-	4.9	-11.7
9	WSH	18.2	-	27.2	+8.9
8	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
7	HOU	14.9	-	8.6	-6.3
6	JAX	15.3	-	20.0	+4.7
5	TB	13.2	-	27.6	+14.4
4	ARI	13.0	-	16.1	+3.1
3	NO	14.1	-	16.7	+2.7
2	PIT	12.8	-	15.8	+3.0
1	SF	15.3	-	5.4	-9.9

Trending up: 12.2 avg (last 3) vs 8.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.66)
Season high: 27.6 pts in Week 5

Hunter Henry (TE) - NE vs NYJ

Projections: ESPN 10.7 | LLM 9.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 51% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 12%

XGB (This Week): Boom 8% | Bust 62%

Notes: MC: 43% MODERATE. NE vs NYJ. Solid floor as NE TE1. NYJ Rank 20 vs TE. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	BUF	10.3	5.0	2.8	-7.5
14	BYE	0.0	0.0	0.0	+0.0
13	NYG	11.2	-	11.3	+0.1
12	CIN	11.4	-	24.5	+13.1
11	NYJ	10.0	-	8.5	-1.5
10	TB	10.7	-	1.9	-8.8
9	ATL	9.1	-	9.1	-0.0
8	CLE	9.4	-	7.7	-1.7
7	TEN	9.3	-	7.3	-2.0
6	NO	10.3	-	5.7	-4.6
5	BUF	11.1	-	6.6	-4.5
4	CAR	11.2	-	11.9	+0.7
3	PIT	9.1	-	29.0	+19.9
2	MIA	9.7	-	1.9	-7.8
1	LV	8.8	-	10.6	+1.8

Trending down: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 11.6 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.87)
Season high: 29.0 pts in Week 3

Quentin Johnston (WR) - LAC vs HOU

Projections: ESPN 8.3 | LLM 7.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 53% | BOOM: 18%

XGB (This Week): Boom 15% | Bust 39%

Notes: MC: 38% BUST. HOU Rank 2 vs WR (brutal matchup). Behind Keenan Allen in targets. Mode: BUST. Projection: 7 pts.

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	KC	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
14	PHI	8.7	-	2.8	-5.9
13	LV	10.0	-	11.3	+1.3
12	BYE	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
11	JAX	12.6	-	0.0	-12.6
10	PIT	11.7	-	9.2	-2.5
9	TEN	12.3	-	15.3	+3.0
8	MIN	13.5	-	0.0	-13.5
7	IND	14.9	-	11.0	-3.9
6	MIA	0.0	-	0.0	+0.0
5	WSH	17.5	-	6.9	-10.6
4	NYG	13.8	-	23.8	+10.0
3	DEN	12.7	-	14.9	+2.2
2	LV	11.5	-	15.9	+4.4
1	KC	6.4	-	24.9	+18.5

Trending up: 4.7 avg (last 3) vs 3.1 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.96)
Season high: 24.9 pts in Week 1

Rashid Shaheed (WR) - SEA vs CAR

Projections: ESPN 9.4 | LLM 6.0

MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 30%

XGB (This Week): Boom 14% | Bust 53%

Notes: MC: 41% BUST. XGB: 53% bust (highest). Same game as JSN = correlated. WR3 role. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6 pts (within bust range).

Week	Opp	ESPN	LLM	Actual	+/-
15	IND	8.7	-	12.1	+3.4
14	ATL	8.0	-	16.7	+8.7
13	MIN	7.9	-	2.6	-5.3
12	TEN	7.8	-	0.5	-7.3
11	LAR	9.6	-	4.9	-4.7
10	ARI	10.4	-	3.3	-7.1
9	WSH	10.8	-	11.8	+1.0
8	BYE	12.2	-	14.5	+2.3
7	HOU	11.3	-	8.0	-3.3
6	JAX	10.0	-	6.8	-3.2
5	TB	9.3	-	21.4	+12.1
4	ARI	9.7	-	9.2	-0.5
3	NO	10.1	-	8.2	-1.9
2	PIT	11.3	-	15.2	+3.9
1	SF	10.6	-	9.3	-1.3

Trending up: 10.5 avg (last 3) vs 2.9 (prior 3)
Volatile/boom-bust profile (CV: 0.60)
Season high: 21.4 pts in Week 5

High Threat Players (>35% Boom)

James Cook III (RB): 57% boom probability

Dak Prescott (QB): 51% boom probability

Jaylen Waddle (WR): 49% boom probability

Tyler Warren (TE): 41% boom probability

Opponent Starter Analysis

Player	Pos	Team	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%	Threat
James Cook III	RB	BUF	17.2	18.0	MODERATE	57%	31%	12%	HIGH
Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	20.5	18.0	MODERATE	51%	34%	15%	HIGH
Jaylen Waddle	WR	MIA	13.2	14.0	MODERATE	49%	36%	15%	HIGH
Tyler Warren	TE	IND	12.1	11.0	MODERATE	41%	40%	19%	HIGH
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	DEN	8.9	9.0	MODERATE	29%	45%	26%	MEDIUM
Deebo Samuel	WR	WSH	11.9	13.0	MODERATE	27%	52%	22%	MEDIUM
De'Von Achane	RB	MIA	22.3	19.0	MODERATE	13%	64%	23%	LOW
Cairo Santos	K	CHI	8.4	7.0	BUST	13%	28%	59%	LOW
DeVonta Smith	WR	PHI	12.4	12.0	BUST	9%	48%	43%	LOW

Opponent Scenario Analysis (MC Historical)

James Cook III: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 45% | BOOM: 23%) | XGB (Boom 57% | Bust 12%)

Dak Prescott: MC (BUST: 32% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 51% | Bust 15%)

Jaylen Waddle: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 44%) | XGB (Boom 49% | Bust 15%)

Tyler Warren: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 32%) | XGB (Boom 41% | Bust 19%)

Broncos D/ST: MC (BUST: 15% | MODERATE: 57% | BOOM: 28%) | XGB (Boom 29% | Bust 26%)

Deebo Samuel: MC (BUST: 40% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 31%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 22%)

De'Von Achane: MC (BUST: 4% | MODERATE: 78% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 23%)

Cairo Santos: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 30% | BOOM: 22%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 59%)

DeVonta Smith: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 10%) | XGB (Boom 9% | Bust 43%)

Add/Drop Recommendations

Season Phase: Playoffs - Maximize ceiling, ride-or-die with roster

Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.

Protected Players (8): Sam Darnold (Elite ceiling (34 pts)), Tyjae Spears (Elite ceiling (28 pts)), Isiah Pacheco (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashee Rice (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Jameson Williams (Elite ceiling (32 pts)), Rashid Shaheed (Elite ceiling (25 pts)), Quentin Johnston (Elite ceiling (31 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (31 pts))

ADD J.K. Dobbins RB,

Boom%47%

Bust%20%

EV12.2

BUST: 47% (4-11) MODERATE: 39% (8-20) BOOM: 14% (13-28)

ADD Jayden Daniels QB,

Boom%34%

Bust%30%

EV0.0

OUT: 100% (0-0)

ADD Jordan Love QB,

Boom%27%

Bust%21%

EV16.6

BUST: 26% (2-14) MODERATE: 53% (9-24) BOOM: 21% (18-36)

ADD Evan Engram TE,

Boom%27%

Bust%24%

EV8.0

BUST: 34% (-0-6) MODERATE: 45% (4-13) BOOM: 20% (9-21)

ADD Zach Ertz TE,

Boom%24%

Bust%27%

EV10.1

BUST: 17% (-0-6) MODERATE: 50% (4-13) BOOM: 34% (11-23)

Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoffs mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.

Top Free Agents by Boom Potential

Player	Pos	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%	Own%
J.K. Dobbins	RB	12.2	47%	20%	0.0%
Jayden Daniels	QB	0.0	34%	30%	0.0%
Jordan Love	QB	16.6	27%	21%	0.0%
Evan Engram	TE	8.0	27%	24%	0.0%
Zach Ertz	TE	10.1	24%	27%	0.0%
Bears D/ST	D/ST	8.4	20%	30%	0.0%
Matt Prater	K	8.0	19%	54%	0.0%
Cooper Kupp	WR	9.8	18%	48%	0.0%
Devin Neal	RB	9.6	18%	45%	0.0%
Giants D/ST	D/ST	6.7	18%	46%	0.0%
Harrison Mevis	K	9.0	16%	48%	0.0%
Garrett Wilson	WR	14.7	15%	48%	0.0%
49ers D/ST	D/ST	8.1	14%	51%	0.0%
Jayden Reed	WR	11.7	13%	52%	0.0%
Trey Benson	RB	8.6	12%	57%	0.0%

QB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Jayden Daniels	0.0	OUT:100%	34%	30%
Jordan Love	16.6	BUST:26%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:21%	27%	21%
Kyler Murray	16.8	BUST:17%, MODERATE:57%, BOOM:26%	11%	54%

RB Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
J.K. Dobbins	12.2	BUST:47%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:14%	47%	20%
Devin Neal	9.6	BUST:35%, MODERATE:46%, BOOM:19%	18%	45%
Trey Benson	8.6	BUST:34%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:24%	12%	57%
Quinshon Judkins	11.8	BUST:30%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:32%	9%	64%
Jacory Croskey-Merritt	9.5	BUST:54%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:12%	8%	61%

WR Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Cooper Kupp	9.8	BUST:46%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:12%	18%	48%
Garrett Wilson	14.7	BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22%	15%	48%
Jayden Reed	11.7	BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10%	13%	52%
Darnell Mooney	8.1	BUST:46%, MODERATE:34%, BOOM:20%	10%	60%
Keenan Allen	11.7	BUST:69%, MODERATE:21%, BOOM:11%	9%	56%

TE Free Agents

Player	ESPN	MC Scenarios	Boom%	Bust%
Evan Engram	8.0	BUST:34%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:20%	27%	24%
Zach Ertz	10.1	BUST:17%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:34%	24%	27%
Oronde Gadsden	13.7	BOOM:10%, MODERATE:40%, BUST:50%	0%	0%

Streaming Options

K Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Matt Prater	8.0	19%	54%
Harrison Mevis	9.0	16%	48%
Evan McPherson	9.4	9%	60%

D/ST Streamers

Player	ESPN	Boom%	Bust%
Bears D/ST	8.4	20%	30%
Giants D/ST	6.7	18%	46%
49ers D/ST	8.1	14%	51%

Monte Carlo Projection Report

Week 17 | Generated: 2025-12-24 15:21

Matchup Summary

45.0%

Win Probability

-2.0

Expected Margin

125.0

My Team (LLM Proj)

127.0

Opponent (Proj)

30.8

Margin Std Dev

120.1

My Team (MC EV)

Margin Distribution (80% Range)

Floor: -38.6 pts | Median: +2.2 pts | Ceiling: +40.8 pts

My Team

Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)

Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Jacoby Brissett	QB	MED	21.0	4.4-27.9	↑15+: 66% \| ↓5-: 11%
Bucky Irving	RB	HIGH	15.0	5.0-24.0	↑15+: 40% \| ↓5-: 10%
Omarion Hampton	RB	HIGH	14.0	3.7-24.3	↑15+: 34% \| ↓5-: 18%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	MED	22.0	6.3-30.0	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 4%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	HIGH	14.0	3.8-21.5	↑15+: 31% \| ↓5-: 17%
Jameson Williams	WR	HIGH	12.0	4.2-26.1	↑15+: 51% \| ↓5-: 14%
Juwan Johnson	TE	HIGH	9.0	2.9-16.6	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 23%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	7.0	0.9-18.0	↑15+: 19% \| ↓5-: 27%
Jason Myers	K	MED	9.0	5.4-19.0	↑15+: 26% \| ↓5-: 8%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Sam Darnold	QB	HIGH	16.0	4.0-27.5	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 15%
Tyjae Spears	RB	HIGH	7.0	2.6-17.9	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 28%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	HIGH	7.0	2.2-15.4	↑15+: 11% \| ↓5-: 42%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	HIGH	14.0	4.9-25.0	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 11%
Quentin Johnston	WR	HIGH	7.0	2.9-22.9	↑15+: 29% \| ↓5-: 20%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	HIGH	6.0	1.7-20.1	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 27%
Hunter Henry	TE	HIGH	9.0	3.1-20.5	↑15+: 16% \| ↓5-: 30%

IR

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust	Distribution
Rashee Rice	WR	MED	0.0	6.5-27.6	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 3%

Opponent

Starters

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Dak Prescott	QB	MED	18.0	7.5-29.9	↑15+: 62% \| ↓5-: 3%
De'Von Achane	RB	MED	19.0	10.8-31.4	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 3%
James Cook III	RB	MED	18.0	6.3-27.4	↑15+: 52% \| ↓5-: 4%
DeVonta Smith	WR	HIGH	12.0	4.5-24.3	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 14%
Jaylen Waddle	WR	HIGH	14.0	3.1-22.3	↑15+: 36% \| ↓5-: 20%
Deebo Samuel	WR	HIGH	13.0	3.6-23.0	↑15+: 33% \| ↓5-: 20%
Tyler Warren	TE	HIGH	11.0	3.1-18.1	↑15+: 21% \| ↓5-: 22%
Broncos D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	9.0	0.7-18.1	↑15+: 18% \| ↓5-: 31%
Cairo Santos	K	HIGH	7.0	3.8-16.1	↑15+: 14% \| ↓5-: 21%

Bench

Player	Pos	Var	Proj	Range (80%)	Boom/Bust
Trevor Lawrence	QB	HIGH	18.8	8.3-32.2	↑15+: 63% \| ↓5-: 2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr.	RB	HIGH	7.6	1.7-14.2	↑15+: 8% \| ↓5-: 36%
Chimere Dike	WR	HIGH	10.3	2.0-20.8	↑15+: 27% \| ↓5-: 32%
Dallas Goedert	TE	HIGH	11.9	3.8-23.3	↑15+: 28% \| ↓5-: 20%
Taysom Hill	TE	HIGH	5.4	0.7-13.6	↑15+: 7% \| ↓5-: 73%
Buccaneers D/ST	D/ST	HIGH	10.1	1.3-20.8	↑15+: 25% \| ↓5-: 34%
Chase McLaughlin	K	HIGH	9.2	2.8-16.7	↑15+: 15% \| ↓5-: 25%

Scenario Details

Player	Position	BOOM	MODERATE	BUST	EV
Bucky Irving	RB	17% @ 24.3	59% @ 14.3	25% @ 5.9	13.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	27% @ 28.7	44% @ 18.4	29% @ 7.6	18.0
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	27% @ 20.1	43% @ 12.0	31% @ 5.2	12.1
Omarion Hampton	RB	25% @ 23.1	43% @ 12.1	32% @ 5.2	12.6
Jason Myers	K	25% @ 18.3	44% @ 11.8	31% @ 6.5	11.8
Juwan Johnson	TE	30% @ 14.9	45% @ 8.8	25% @ 3.8	9.4
Jameson Williams	WR	29% @ 24.4	44% @ 15.6	28% @ 5.4	15.3
Jacoby Brissett	QB	74% @ 21.4	2% @ 14.7	24% @ 6.0	17.5
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	36% @ 15.0	42% @ 8.4	22% @ 2.8	9.5

XGBoost Boom/Bust Predictions

Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)

Player	Pos	ESPN	LLM	Mode	Boom%	Mod%	Bust%
Chargers D/ST	D/ST	6.3	7.0	MODERATE	55.0%	29.8%	15.2%
Marvin Harrison Jr.	WR	12.9	14.0	MODERATE	42.3%	35.3%	22.4%
Rashee Rice	WR	13.7	0.0	OUT	24.9%	45.3%	29.8%
Jason Myers	K	8.4	9.0	MODERATE	23.2%	55.1%	21.6%
Juwan Johnson	TE	10.2	9.0	MODERATE	18.8%	25.1%	56.0%
Tyjae Spears	RB	9.9	7.0	BUST	17.6%	44.8%	37.6%
Tetairoa McMillan	WR	12.3	14.0	MODERATE	16.9%	61.6%	21.5%
Quentin Johnston	WR	8.3	7.0	BUST	15.2%	45.7%	39.1%
Rashid Shaheed	WR	9.4	6.0	BUST	13.8%	33.2%	53.0%
Jacoby Brissett	QB	20.3	21.0	MODERATE	13.5%	50.0%	36.4%
Sam Darnold	QB	15.9	16.0	MODERATE	13.3%	42.9%	43.8%
Bucky Irving	RB	14.7	15.0	MODERATE	12.9%	38.9%	48.2%
Jameson Williams	WR	13.4	12.0	MODERATE	12.6%	44.9%	42.6%
Isiah Pacheco	RB	8.9	7.0	BUST	11.9%	28.2%	59.9%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	21.8	22.0	MODERATE	11.4%	66.0%	22.6%
Omarion Hampton	RB	14.9	14.0	MODERATE	9.0%	33.3%	57.7%
Hunter Henry	TE	10.7	9.0	MODERATE	8.0%	30.5%	61.6%

League Standings

Week 17 standings with live scores included. ESPN updates official totals on Tuesday.

Rank	Team	Record	PF (Total)	PA (Total)	+/-	This Week	Streak	Playoff %
1	Kitty's Piggy Skins	10-5	1861.3	1676.5	+184.8	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	100.0%
2	4th and pinches	10-5	1771.1	1765.4	+5.7	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	100.0%
3	Valued Customers ←	9-6	1822.8	1558.6	+264.2	0.0 vs 0.0	W5	100.0%
4	Ryan's Rowdy Team	8-7	1759.9	1725.0	+35.0	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	100.0%
5	Wookie of the Year	8-7	1705.9	1731.9	-26.0	0.0 vs 0.0	L1	0.0%
6	Meat Pistols	8-7	1515.0	1664.9	-149.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
7	Torta Pounders Football Club	7-8	1730.5	1674.7	+55.9	0.0 vs 0.0	L2	0.0%
8	Moms rules	7-8	1664.9	1778.5	-113.6	0.0 vs 0.0	W1	0.0%
9	Smooth Roosters	7-8	1664.4	1646.9	+17.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W3	0.0%
10	The Warsaw Pact	6-9	1653.5	1752.0	-98.5	0.0 vs 0.0	W2	0.0%
11	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits	6-9	1584.0	1689.6	-105.6	0.0 vs 0.0	L5	0.0%
12	Auto DraftKings	4-11	1697.9	1767.4	-69.5	0.0 vs 0.0	L4	0.0%

Week 17 Matchups

Away Team		Home Team
Kitty's Piggy Skins	@	Valued Customers
4th and pinches	@	Ryan's Rowdy Team
Wookie of the Year	@	Moms rules
Meat Pistols	@	The Warsaw Pact
Torta Pounders Football Club	@	Auto DraftKings
Smooth Roosters	@	Chupi and the End Zone Bandits

Season Points Trend

Weekly and cumulative points scored by each team throughout the 2025 season. Your team (Valued Customers) is highlighted in green.

Weekly Points

Cumulative Points

Week 17 Championship Research Analysis

Key News & Injury Updates

DK Metcalf (PIT) - Suspended for fan altercation, irrelevant to us but confirms JSN is SEA WR1
Marvin Harrison Jr. - Heel injury, played 51% snaps Week 16 (29/57), 1/3 targets for 14 yds. Coach says "he wants to play"
Rashee Rice - Still in concussion protocol, non-participant in practice. Unlikely Week 17
Patrick Mahomes - Torn ACL, DONE for year. Gardner Minshew also ACL (done). Chris Oladokun starting
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Expected to play vs MIN (knee)
Jameson Williams - Healthy, no injury designation

Vegas Lines Context

Game	Total	Spread	Implication
ARI @ CIN	52.5	CIN -7	HIGHEST TOTAL - shootout expected, MHJ ceiling play
SEA @ CAR	42.5	SEA -7	JSN + Myers safe plays, Panthers fighting for division
DET vs MIN	43.5	DET -7.5	Williams tough matchup but competitive game
TB vs MIA	45.5	TB -5.5	Irving positive game script
KC @ DEN	36.5	DEN -13.5	AVOID KC - blowout, backup QB, negative script

WR Debate Summary

Agents voted 3-1 for Williams (WR2) + MHJ (FLEX) over McMillan. Key factors: - Williams: Highest MC EV (15.3), Lions playoff push - MHJ: Highest XGB boom (42%), elite game environment (52.5) - McMillan: Strong backup (5 TDs in 5 games) if MHJ limited

Sources

Waiver Wire Notes

No waiver recommendations this week.

Injury Concerns

No major injury concerns.

Crystal Society Debates

Multi-agent analysis for strategic decisions (Week 17)

Who should start at WR2 and FLEX? (JSN locked as WR1)

Round 1: Opening Arguments

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ has the highest BOOM ceiling - XGB shows 42% BOOM probability in the slate's highest-scoring game (52.5 total). Coach Gannon confirmed "ready for more" reps after limited Week 16 return. McMillan scored TDs in 4 of last 5 games.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Williams has safest floor - tied for team lead in targets, Lions fighting for #1 seed. Vikings pass D regressed to 28th in yards (243.6 YPG). MHJ too risky at 51% snaps Week 16 and only 1 catch for 14 yards.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Down 4 points, we need CEILING not floor. MHJ's 42% XGB BOOM in 52.5 total game beats Williams facing #3 pass defense. ESPN explicitly downgrades Williams as "matchup to avoid". McMillan's 5 TDs in 5 games shows elite red zone role.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

Consensus is sleeping on McMillan's TD streak (5 in 5) while overreacting to MHJ injury. Williams faced same Vikings D Week 9 - only 66 yards. Brian Flores' 48.8% blitz rate neutralizes deep threats.

Fact Check

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ XGB 42% BOOM - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "MHJ 51% snaps Week 16 - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Game total 52.5 (ARI@CIN) - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Williams MC EV 15.3 - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Vikings #1 defense vs WR - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "McMillan 5 TDs in 5 games - VERIFIED (4 of 5 confi" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Vikings allow 243.6 YPG (28th) - VERIFIED" CORRECT

✅ MULTIPLE: "Williams 43% XGB BUST - VERIFIED" CORRECT

Round 2: Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous - he starts in lineup [Challenge FLOOR] Williams is safer [Concede] FLOOR is right that MHJ injury is a concern - 51% snaps is worrying

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous - agreed he starts [Challenge CEILING] MHJ 42% boom is playable [Concede] CEILING is right that MHJ's CIN matchup (Rank 4) is better than Williams' MIN matchup (#1)

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous [Challenge FLOOR] Williams floor is safe [Concede] FLOOR makes valid point about injury risk in championship week

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

[Ack] McMillan unanimous [Challenge FLOOR] Williams tied for team lead in targets [Concede] FLOOR is right that MHJ 51% snaps is concerning - we need Friday practice report

Round 3: Counter Rebuttals

🔼 CEILING MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

FLOOR attacks MHJ snaps but ignores coach quote: "ready for more". Week 16 was easing him back. Week 17 he gets full workload.

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

My 43% XGB bust for Williams looks bad, but so does MHJ's 51% snap share. At least Williams is healthy and guaranteed full workload.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

The math is simple: down 4 points, we need ceiling. MHJ boom range is 23-47 pts. Williams boom range is 16-31 pts. MHJ gives us the comeback path.

🔮 CONTRARIAN MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

I'm changing my WR2 pick. After analyzing Bengals secondary (Rank 4 vs WR) vs Vikings (#1), MHJ's matchup is dramatically better. McMillan in FLEX, MHJ in WR2.

Round 4: Final Arguments

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ in a 52.5 total game with 42% XGB boom is our best chance to overcome the 4-point deficit. Coach confirmed increased workload Week 17.

🔽 FLOOR HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

Williams' 8-10 target floor is safer than MHJ's binary boom-or-bust injury risk. But I acknowledge I'm in the minority given the 4-point deficit.

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ's 42% boom ceiling is 2x Williams' upside. When trailing in championship, you need ceiling plays. McMillan unanimous.

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

MHJ practiced fully Friday - injury is overblown. Championship demands ceiling over floor. McMillan's 5 TDs in 5 games locks FLEX.

Round 5: Final Votes

🔼 CEILING HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

🔽 FLOOR MEDIUM

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Jameson Williams, FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

⚖️ SYNTHESIS HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

🔮 CONTRARIAN HIGH

DROP: | ADD:

FINAL VOTE: WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

Consensus: Majority

WR2: Marvin Harrison Jr., FLEX: Tetairoa McMillan

3/4 agents agree

Week 17 Prediction Accuracy (In Progress)

Live data from completed games

11.1

Our Team MAE

17 players

13.4

Opponent MAE

9 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 11.9

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Error
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	21.8	22.0	-22.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	20.3	21.0	-21.0
Opponent	RB	De'Von Achane	22.3	19.0	-19.0
Opponent	RB	James Cook III	17.2	18.0	-18.0
Opponent	QB	Dak Prescott	20.5	18.0	-18.0
Our Team	QB	Sam Darnold	15.9	16.0	-16.0
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	14.7	15.0	-15.0
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	12.3	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	12.9	14.0	-14.0
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	14.9	14.0	-14.0
Opponent	WR	Jaylen Waddle	13.2	14.0	-14.0
Opponent	WR	Deebo Samuel	11.9	13.0	-13.0
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	13.4	12.0	-12.0
Opponent	WR	DeVonta Smith	12.4	12.0	-12.0
Opponent	TE	Tyler Warren	12.1	11.0	-11.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.4	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	10.2	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	TE	Hunter Henry	10.7	9.0	-9.0
Opponent	D/ST	Broncos D/ST	8.9	9.0	-9.0
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	9.9	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	6.3	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	8.9	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	WR	Quentin Johnston	8.3	7.0	-7.0
Opponent	K	Cairo Santos	8.4	7.0	-7.0
Our Team	WR	Rashid Shaheed	9.4	6.0	-6.0
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	13.7	0.0	+0.0

Week 16 Prediction Accuracy (Final)

Final review from run_007 (2025-12-20)

6.2

Our Team MAE

17 players

4.3

Opponent MAE

9 players

8.4

Free Agent MAE

6 players

Players Tracked

Combined MAE: 6.1

Player Results (Sorted by Error Magnitude)

Category	Pos	Player	ESPN	LLM	Actual	Error
Free Agent	K	Ka'imi Fairbairn	0.0	-	16.0	+16.0
Free Agent	RB	Isiah Pacheco	0.0	-	13.5	+13.5
Our Team	RB	Tyjae Spears	8.7	10.0	21.5	+11.5
Our Team	QB	Jordan Love	17.4	15.0	3.8	-11.2
Free Agent	K	Eddy Pineiro	0.0	-	11.0	+11.0
Our Team	QB	Jacoby Brissett	18.8	21.0	10.6	-10.4
Opponent	TE	Trey McBride	16.8	-	6.7	-10.1
Our Team	WR	Jameson Williams	15.9	22.0	12.0	-10.0
Our Team	WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	14.2	12.0	2.4	-9.6
Our Team	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	4.2	12.0	4.0	-8.0
Our Team	TE	Juwan Johnson	9.1	9.0	16.9	+7.9
Our Team	RB	Isiah Pacheco	9.1	6.0	13.5	+7.5
Our Team	RB	Bucky Irving	15.2	14.0	7.1	-6.9
Opponent	RB	Rico Dowdle	15.2	-	8.3	-6.9
Our Team	WR	Tetairoa McMillan	13.1	13.0	19.3	+6.3
Our Team	WR	Jayden Reed	11.2	13.0	7.1	-5.9
Opponent	WR	DK Metcalf	13.5	-	8.2	-5.3
Our Team	WR	Rashee Rice	17.8	5.0	0.0	-5.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Patriots D/ST	0.0	-	5.0	+5.0
Opponent	RB	Michael Carter	11.0	-	6.5	-4.5
Free Agent	D/ST	Chargers D/ST	0.0	-	4.0	+4.0
Opponent	QB	Baker Mayfield	16.6	-	12.7	-3.9
Opponent	D/ST	Jaguars D/ST	5.6	-	2.0	-3.6
Our Team	RB	Omarion Hampton	13.2	13.0	16.5	+3.5
Opponent	K	Harrison Butker	8.0	-	11.0	+3.0
Our Team	RB	Devin Singletary	7.5	4.0	5.6	+1.6
Opponent	RB	Jahmyr Gibbs	23.8	-	22.8	-1.0
Free Agent	D/ST	Chiefs D/ST	0.0	-	1.0	+1.0
Opponent	WR	Michael Wilson	13.4	-	13.2	-0.2
Our Team	WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	19.9	23.6	23.6	+0.0
Our Team	K	Jason Myers	8.1	2.0	2.0	+0.0
Our Team	D/ST	Rams D/ST	5.7	4.0	4.0	+0.0

ESPN Projection Accuracy

XGBoost Boom/Bust Calibration

$xgb_position_calibration.png$

LLM vs ESPN Comparison

Data Quality & Discrepancies

This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.

Week 17 Discrepancy Log

No discrepancies detected this week.